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Mon, Apr 2, 2007 10:37 EDT
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Posted by: Ben Worthen in Soapbox Topic: InfrastructureBlog: Net Effect
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An article in last week’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required) looks at how advances in data transmission speeds, battery life, and storage capacity are changing cell phones into multipurpose devices.
The transition is undoubtedly underway – look no further than the Blackberry or the soon to be released iPhone. But the article lists emerging services, such as using a phone as a television, credit card, or GPS locator, which take the phenomenon to a brand new level. In the next couple of years, the article says:
“Users will also get sophisticated software applications for surfing the mobile Web, and more services to connect with friends, share videos and exchange photos. And they'll likely see mobile devices that can roam seamlessly across Wi-Fi hot spots, cellular networks and new high-speed data networks, bringing a much faster and smoother surfing experience.”
In other words, cell phones will pretty much be able to do whatever we want them to. I’ve been thinking a lot about cell phones and their role in our culture ever since I went to India a couple of months ago. And this seems like a pretty good time to go out on a limb with a bold prediction: Within ten years the cell phone – or more realistically its evolutionary heir – will replace the laptop as the dominant business tool.
There really shouldn’t be any doubt that the cell phone can replace the laptop – the article focuses on services like movies because everyone can relate to it, but it is just as easy to design and build applications for corporate users. The bigger question is whether there is a market for services targeted to businesses, i.e. will the cell phone replace the laptop. In the U.S. I expect a lot of resistance. We’ve been using PCs since before the days of the Internet and in that time we’ve become a computer-centric society. And we don’t really have any infrastructure limitations restricting how or where we use our computers – you can plug your laptop in just about anywhere and connect to the Internet. But the U.S. and parts of Europe are really the only places in the world that can say that.
The developing world doesn't have the infrastructure in place to support a laptop culture. And the buying habits in those countries reflect this. India, for example,
I find this article whimsical and not very well thought out. But then, it doesn't take much thought to post a collection of discreet unrelated ideas and try to pass yourself off as a visionary.
Will the cell phone increase in functionality? Of course. Do differing adoption rates of laptops and cell phones in third world countries have anything to do with each other today? Absolutely not. They do very different things and have incredibly different price points.
If you want to feign vision try not to drag the unrelated present into it.
I do not think that cell phones per se will replace the functionality of a laptop, there will be some tangible points like when the Midrange Systems was trying to beat the Main Frames then came the Micro Computers that want to become a Main Frame. Now the Cell Phones want to become a Notebook! Well in this part of the world where i live in the PC penetration is less than 2% due to the obvious reason of price range as against 40% Cell Phone users that generates more than 200 Million SMS per day!!!
I dont think that the article has been well thought out. Comparing laptops and cellphones does seem whimsical atleast in the contest of the third world and the developing countries. Just comparing numbers would not give an honest picture. How many of the cell phones actually have GPRS enabled. The moment we compare that figure with the net penetration, the difference of 20% in the context of India would drastically reduce. Also Indian corporates are yet to get accustomed to using laptops forget about they getting sed to cellphones.
I do think that there is some logic to your reasoning Ben. I believe the idea of cell phones replacing mobile computers would be mainly a function of the type of user involved.
For example, a typical power user in some business environments often writing long-winded functions in Excel or a developer might not find using a cell phone or smart phone ergonomical. However, higher level executives who travel often and receive and perhaps respond to no less that 30-40 e-mails / day may prefer the functionality of a cell phone.
So, it might be reasonable to assume that the acceptance of replacement has a higher probability measure for higherlevel-alwaystravelling-alwaysinmeetings executives, but tends to zero for the average power user.