NEWSLETTERS
 

CIO.com updates, insights and advice on technology, management and your career.

 CIO BlackBerry News and Tips
 CIO Research and Analysis
 CIO Microsoft
 CIO Insider
 
 
 
SUBSCRIBE TO CIO
 
Are you involved in setting the direction for your company's IT budget or strategy?

Apply today for a FREE subscription to CIO Magazine!

 


Mon, Jan 5, 2009 11:41 EST

Gartner's Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2009: Hype Overload

Topic: Infrastructure

Blog: Data Center Expert

Current Rating: 4 Comments: 12

location-aware computing . . . gone.  

So what does hype have to do with this?   You see, most of the "strategic technologies for 2008" are also coincidentally at the top of the Gartner hype cycle (a model introduced by Gartner Group in 1995).  The hype cycle says that interest in a new technology enters a phase of "excited speculation about all the benefits new technology will offer" which eventually reaches a peak of "inflated expectations."   This is followed by a cold, hard "trough of disillusionment."  Eventually some practical business applications emerge – but which business applications, leveraging what technology, is hard to say. 

Placing technology bets early in the hype cycle is a risky proposition.  Doing so as we face an economic crisis of epic proportions is even riskier. Before you follow the hype, consider how your priorities have changed, how your staffing levels have changed, how your risk tolerance has changed, how your budgets have changed. If your business is like most others, just about everything has changed . . . except Gartner's advice.  

Here are my hype-free top 5 predictions for IT in 2009: 

1.      Companies will implement cost cutting measures in 2009 that will provide fast payback and that are transparent to IT operations – with significant gains coming from facilities optimization. 

2.      Open source enterprise software will continue to displace expensive royalty-based and seat license-based services. 

3.      There will be a well publicized cloud computing disaster in 2009 – probably linked to security, reliability or service restoration delays.

4.      Facing slumping sales, many technology suppliers will try to increase revenue by raising their service fees and trying to force their clients to upgrade to new hardware and software.

5.      Companies that have been investing heavily in Gartner "Top 10" recommendations will put many of those projects on hold in the face of budget cuts and business pressure for a faster ROI accomplished with fewer resources.  

My advice is to ignore the hype. Beware of false prophets.  And be wise with your budget in 2009.

As always, thank you for sending comments, tips and topic suggestions to me at CIOblog@TransitionalData.com.
_________________________________

Michael Bullock is the founder and CEO of Transitional Data Services (TDS), a consulting firm helping clients implement energy saving green data center solutions, data center relocations, web based enterprise applications and 24/7 technical operations.

You do not have flash or javascript support.
Average (2 votes)
4
 
 
Tue, Jan 6, 2009 8:55 EST
Anonymous user
Posted by: Anonymous
Rating: 90

HOW TRUE!
These are financially troubled times - we're cutting positions, freezing salaries, closing sites, slashing the budget ... how can we not look to cost cutting measures including open source. Only fools would nix open source when that is affordable.
We're at the point where the budget situation is so bleak we have no new spending $$. We have to figure out how to pay what little staff we have and keep things up and running.
2009 is a year to focus on maintaining our existing infrastructure, existing business applications and processes while ensuring they are operational and secure.
There is no money to do anything else.

 
Tue, Jan 6, 2009 18:20 EST
Anonymous user
Posted by: Anonymous
Rating: 50

Don't you think it's a bit odd to deride Gartner for being beholden to vendors in the same article that you reference Gartner's hype-cycle model as completely legitimate?

Not that I'm a huge fan of research firms or anything, but it just seems strange.

 
Wed, Jan 7, 2009 0:24 EST
Anonymous user
Posted by: Anonymous
Rating: 90

Hmm... if anything, I thought that was the point. That you shouldn't put too much weight into the Gartner predictions because it was self declared as hype?

 
Wed, Jan 7, 2009 11:35 EST
Anonymous user
Posted by: Kim Leonard
Rating: 90

Interesting piece, Michael! I was struck by the juxtaposition of your prediction:

Facing slumping sales, many technology suppliers will try to increase revenue by raising their service fees and trying to force their clients to upgrade to new hardware and software.

With this one from Cutter's Vince Kellen:

Aged infrastructure will stay in service longer. More companies with way-past-their-prime architectures will attempt coax them along for another year. This will undoubtedly make things doubly difficult as many companies, who will be carrying smaller staffs, will have to find eke more time out of existing staff schedules to care for these aged beasts. Virtualization and low-end storage growth aside, many IT shops will pause and take a few breaths before funding major infrastructure changes.

Tough times for vendors and IT shops alike!

 
Thu, Jan 8, 2009 12:23 EST
Anonymous user
Posted by: Anonymous
Rating:

I see a significant surge in some of these spaces in the Government as various agencies attempt to get better at doing age old processes in new ways. The old ways are costing tax payers a great deal of money. The economics in government are a somewhat different from commercial profit and loss driven decision framework and also a bit isulated from the current economic conditions. Recognising that making sound judgements is wase and practical, what thoughts are out there as to how this applies to government technology advancement initiatives.

Post new comment

* Subject:
* Username:
* E-mail:
The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
Homepage:
* Body:
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <img> <blockquote> <strike> <p> <br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
More information about formatting options

* Denotes required field.

About this Blog

Advice and analysis on managing and optimizing your enterprise data center.

Start a Conversation
Click to post

Got something to say? We want to hear it! Click the Post button to get started. GO»

EXPERT ADVICE
See our roster of experts.

Advice & Opinion from more than 113 of IT's most insightful thinkers.

  PARTNERS       WEBCASTS    
 

Windows 7 Webcast Series

There's a lot of buzz about Windows 7 out there. Each month in our webcast series, listen to analysts and customers discuss how Windows 7 and the Windows Optimized Desktop is impacting large companies around the world. Learn how they evaluated Windows 7, including the cost of deployment, deployment strategies, and tangible benefits.

Sponsored by Microsoft  Listen to on-demand Recordings »

 

Service Level Management Best Practices Life Cycle Overview - Improve Service Levels

Best practices for Service Level Management (SLM) is a process for consistently meeting customer requirements and delivering on IT's promises. See the steps required to ensure high-quality SLM.

Sponsored by Compuware  Read this White Paper »

 

Keeping Your Members Safe from Online Scams and Predators

In order to keep fraudsters out, romance sites must deploy effective solutions that look at information independent of what is supplied by users. A device fingerprinting solution such as iovation ReputationManager™ provides unique insight into the computers being used to create multiple accounts and exposes hidden device-account relationships that identity-based fraud solutions often miss.

Sponsored by iovation  Read this White Paper »

Resource Alerts

Get instant email notifications by topic when white papers, webcasts, and case studies are added to our library.

Resource Alerts

Get instant email notification when white papers, webcasts, and case studies are added to our library. Don't just be up-to-date—be up to the minute with our new Resource Alerts.

Defend Against Blended Threats: What You Need to Know

Blended Web and email threats are becoming increasingly complex and represent a huge...  View Now »

 

Prescriptive Actions to Reduce Risk

In this Webcast, learn best practices for effective systems management in a heterogeneous environment and keep client systems cost under control.   View Now »

 

Webcast- Vantage 11: Redefining Application Performance Management

Compuware's latest release, Vantage 11, is a major advance in end-to-end application performance management--bringing together proactive issue identification, quantification of business impact and problem resolution into a single solution. Tune in to learn how Vantage 11's top-down approach helps you make better decisions and dramatically lower operations costs.  View Now »

Resource Alerts

Get instant email notification when white papers, webcasts, and case studies are added to our library. Don't just be up-to-date—be up to the minute with our new Resource Alerts.

 
NEWSLETTER

Sign-up for the Blogs & Discussion Newsletter

 
FEATURED SPONSORS
 
 
 
SPONSORED LINKS
 

Return on Information: Google Enterprise Search pays you back. Get the facts.

VMware. The source for Business Infrastructure Virtualization.

ShoreTel tells businesses to untangle from competitors' complexity and turn to its brilliantly simple UC solution

See how AT&T can help protect your network.

Streamline IT Costs. Boost Performance with WAN Optimization.

Build your 1st app FREE with Force.com

TDWI checklist helps define data readiness for analytics. Download report.

A Clear View Toward Virtualization

Virtualization Technology as a Business Solution

The rules of infrastructure management just changed.

A Clear View Toward Virtualization

Interactive Q&A helps you discover key ways to maximize IT assets.

Ready to virtualize tier one applications? Check your virtualization maturity.

Think you can't afford a Cisco Switch? Cisco Catalyst Switches are now more affordable.

Five minute business analytics assessment. Immediate results.

The Case for Investing in Business Analytics Technology. Read white paper.

Upgrading to VMware vSphere with vWire

Top 10 Lessons Learned for Corporate 3G Mobile Broadband Deployments

CRM Built for IT: The Executive Guide to Selecting CRM that Meets IT Needs

Return on Information: Google Enterprise Search pays you back

ROI of Application Delivery Controllers

Making Consumer Two-Factor Authentication Simple and Cost-Effective

Mining the Cloud to Ease the Enterprise Compliance Burden

Solve Five Key IT Security Challenges with Cloud-Based Authentication

White Paper: Right-Sizing Your Power Infrastructure

AT&T Synaptic Storage as a Service. Expand on demand

Trend Micro ranked #1 against real-world malware. Read more.

Webinar: Jump-start your in-house e-discovery with Ringtail QuickCull from FTI Technology

Top Five CIO Challenges

Read the RSA report: Security for Business Innovation

64-page prescriptive guide to security, compliance, and IT operations.

Increase UPS efficiency without sacrificing protection.

eZine: A Roadmap to Reducing IT Complexity

Reduce risk, gain agility. See how Progress can help your business.

Virtualization Technology as a Business Solution

eZine: A Roadmap to Reducing IT Complexity

World-class trading technology solutions from NYSE Technologies.

If You're Paying for Telecom, You're Paying Too Much. Contact Asentinel Today.

Trade-In your old printer and save up to $1,000 plus free recycling!

infoBOOM! - The Mid-Sized Company CIO's Exclusive Community

Live Webinar: Applying Business Analytics. Click here to learn more

Removing Barriers To Better Server Virtualization Efficiency

4G Revisited. The Continued Evolution of Wireless Mobility.

What's Next for Enterprise Resource Planning?

Maximizing website Return on Information with high-quality search

Gartner Magic Quadrant, Application Delivery Controllers 2009

Authentication as a Service by Forrester Research

Cloud-Based Authentication for Next-Generation Extranets

Cut Costs & Green Your IT Operations with PC Power Management

White Paper: 4 Customer Service Myths