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Wed, Oct 31, 2007 18:05 EDT
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Posted by: Rob Sanchez in News Topic: IT Organization Management
Current Rating: |
Vivek Wadhwa wrote a thought provoking article for Businessweek that is spreading around the internet blogosphere like a wildfire. Wadhwa is an enigmatic writer who spares no words in exposing the dangers of offshore outsourcing and the harms caused by the importation of foreign guest workers. The Science Education Myth, October 26, 2007” in Businessweek catapulted him to a new level of internet celeb.
Wadhwa is somewhat of a heretic in the business community, and he will probably receive wide scale condemnation by many special interest groups for writing that article. The plutocrats that read BusinessWeek, and perhaps many at CIO, will probably be demanding his head because the article contains a little too much of the truth, and Wadhwa makes enough credible points to make most corporatocrats squirm.
Many high-tech workers, in contrast, are hailing Wadhwa as a new American hero that will break the back of the corporate robber barons. Before the idolatry turns into full fledged Wadhwamania, this essay offers some rational analysis behind the mythology, and offers some words of caution before jumping onto the Wadhwa bandwagon.
The first thing that really caught my eye in his new article is that during the time period from 1985 to 2000, about 435,000 U.S. citizens and permanent residents a year graduated with Bachelor's, Master's, and Doctoral degrees in science and engineering. Over the same period, there were about 150,000 jobs added annually to the science and engineering workforce.
Let's consider just what those numbers mean. Every year, for the 15 year time period considered (1985-2000) there was a job deficit of 285,000 jobs per year. That translates to a total job creation deficit of 4,275,000. Pay attention to the time span -- those years were considered to be the boom times for high-tech careers. Numbers may not be available for the last 7 years but you can bet things are far worse now.
So here is the jobs scorecard for 15 years:
2,250,000 S&E jobs were created
-6,525,000 S&E graduates
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-4,275,000 jobs creation deficit
Put another way, we graduated more than 4 million science and engineering grads than the job market needed – but actually the situation was far worse than that number would indicate because it represents a severe undercount. Four million is probably at least 5 times too small!
So, during this long period of glutted job markets, what was the U.S. government doing to help the problem? Well, at the same time millions of S&E grads couldn't find jobs in their chosen profession, the government was solving an alleged "shortage" by giving incentives for companies to move jobs overseas and to import foreign workers to replace their more expensive American counterparts. Employers responded by dumping their U.S. employees by the tens of thousands and by hiring vast numbers of temporary guest workers to enter our domestic job market by using the H-1B and L-1 visa programs. Millions more entered the job market with employment based green cards (EB) that allowed them a path to citizenship.
Nobody knows exactly how to calculate exact numbers on how the visas contributed to the total job glut because many H-1Bs return home, and others convert their visas to green cards. Still others just let their visas go out of status and stay in the U.S. as "documented" illegal immigrants who have everything they need to function – for instance valid social security numbers, driver’s licenses, and many other documents they accumulated while working and living here.
Considering the huge surplus of workers during that time period, Wadhwa is quite correct to say that shortages just don’t exist. He is one of the few in the business world that have the
Rob is absolutely right on this one. The only thing that he missed was the massive political corruption that started the H-1b program - and has grown it into a "bloated government subsidy program."
You can thank the likes of corrupt Microsoft lawyer - lobbyist Jack Abramoff for the growth of this harmful program. Just google on "Abramoff Visa" to learn more.
Excellent article, you touch all the good points about what Wadhwa said but here is a scenario to consider.
1) You have a foreign national coming to the US who gets educated here in all the latest developments and advances
2) He does not get his green card (which in other words is "not welcomed by America"). In the mean time, he has developed a well rounded experience at the American's hands
3) Now, he goes back to his native country and starts serving the entire world.
That leaves US short of one experienced person. Multiply this by many times and do you see a shortage of skilled labor in US? At the same time, do you see the increase in availability of skilled labor in the foreign countries? So, the work that would have been done here had the foreign national stayed here is now outsourced.
You could say..."OK, one H1B left...another person will fill it...there are always people willing to come to US...we will never be short..". No, at some point US stops being an attractive destination for skilled immigrants. It may be overtaken by India or China since US may lose its # 1 position. Why is everyone coming to US?....because it is able to offer compensation that no body is able to offer at this time but that does not mean that it won't change.
You also mentioned you could buy the video game that some body else invented but when you do that aren't your $s going to somebody abroad? You keep doing this more often and you will be importing more than your are exporting and this will drop the US from its superpower capacity.
In simple math, you do what is a + and you avoid what is a -.
"That leaves US short of one experienced person. Multiply this by many times and do you see a shortage of skilled labor in US?"
Yes! That’s the main idea! If stopping the flow of H-1Bs created a shortage, and the data suggests that there would still be a glut even if we abolished the H-1B program, but let’s just say your theoretical shortage actually happened: Then salaries would rise, more jobs would open up for qualified Americans, and more students would choose S&E because there really would be a shortage.
It will either way as I explained in the article. The fact that a poorly paid inventor dreamed up a widget in the U.S. or China is irrelevant because either way the product will be made somewhere else, and the wealth will not be shared with this nation. To solve this problem I would advocate for some very tough protectionist policies, but that's a subject for a later time -- and perhaps another CIO op-ed!
This article is such a sham. Most probably your degree is worth a toilet paper because you thought that after getting it you did not need to do anything more.
We are living in a flat world and those who think that Microsoft Power Point is same as programming should get their heads out of the sand.....
I am not a software programmer but do work in the technical industry and have seen all sorts of people who did not make the cut stating the same old protectioist excuse......
My friend the world is changing.....and wherever you stand on the evolution debate remember one law " survival of the fittest and the most adaptable".
Maybe you will put your talents to more productive use by helping to figure out how to fix the issue(remember your course of engineering 101:solving issues) and not shoot from the left or the right.
Yes there are deficiencies in the H1B or for that matter the entire immigration system but it needs fixing not someone whinning useless propaganda.
regards
"We are living in a flat world and those who think that Microsoft Power Point is same as programming should get their heads out of the sand....."
Only cavemen like Friedman and yourself believe the Earth is flat. Just for the record, I think the Earth is not flat, and MPP is not programming.