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Fri, Nov 7, 2008 12:12 EST

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Posted by: Shane ONeill in News Topic: InfrastructureBlog: Eye on Microsoft
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There are little things in life that nag at you long enough that you can't ignore them anymore: a growing leak stain in your ceiling, a strange sound coming from your car, Miley Cyrus, Frank TV.
For Microsoft, that little thing is netbooks.
Yes, those cheap, low-powered, 8-inch screen mini-notebooks running Linux or Windows XP are the latest Vista killers. Data from IDC shows that 6.5 million netbooks were shipped during the first three quarters of 2008, up just a tad from 181,000 the year before.
Microsoft has been open about the threat that netbooks pose to Vista. In its quarterly earnings report, the software giant pointed directly at explosive netbook sales as one of the main reasons for the sluggish year-over-year Vista growth.
Microsoft has no plans to push Vista on netbooks (Vista is actually running on some netbooks, but only 1.5 percent of them, according to IDC). The hardware requirements of Vista and the licensing costs are too much for netbook OEMs. Only the newest and strongest netbooks could handle Vista.
So while it's clear Microsoft has acknowledged the netbook problem, it's been unclear what it plans to do about it.
That seems to be changing as more news rolls out of WinHEC in Los Angeles this week. Microsoft will lean heavily on Windows 7 to be the solution to the netbook problem. Yesterday, the company stated outright that netbooks with solid-state drives with as little as 16GB of storage capacity will be able to comfortably run Windows 7.
Microsoft has been hinting at the Windows 7/netbook connection for a few weeks now. It has been adamant about how much more nimble, lighter and faster Windows 7 will be than Vista. At PDC, senior VP of Windows engineering Steven Sinofsky proudly displayed a netbook running Windows 7 to much applause.
Microsoft bloggers agree that having Windows 7 run swiftly on netbooks is a necessity. Computerworld blogger Preston Gralla thinks that Windows 7 will be so successful on netbooks that it will be the undoing of Linux.
Joe Wilcox of Microsoft Watch is a bit more skeptical about exactly how smoothly Windows will run on netbooks, but adds, "Windows 7 has to run on netbooks. Microsoft has no other choice but to make it happen. Netbooks are the computing category of the moment, and demand will only increase as the economy falters, I predict."
I concur. But where does this leave Vista? (I always seem to be asking that question) It's not part of the netbook strategy, that's for sure. Windows 7 is the lean and light OS for that job for the future. But lest you forget, 7 doesn't come out for another year, and that's an awfully long time to be having non-Vista netbooks fly off the shelves.
The problem is the hardware requirements in Vista; they completely preclude using it on a netbook platform. You need a much smaller kernel and services platform that can run on less powerful hardware - an arena where Linux rules. If Microsoft can successfully build Windows 7 with a modular kernel and services approach, it will be successful in the netbook arena. If not, well, they will be opening the door to their own demise.
I for one hope that Vista is the last monolithic kernel put out by Microsoft. I believe that it is in their best interest to STOP packaging every little tool, utility, and trick that anyone MIGHT use and focus on ONLY installing the very basics EVERYONE uses. Then provide a simple plug-in system for add-on tools. This allows for a smaller memory/disk footprint (sorely needed) and would allow for a lower entry price for products. This is a win-win for everyone.
I remember when the industry anticipated the inspiring power of the "3M" machine. It would have 1 million pixels, 1 Meg of RAM and 1 MIPS of performance.
These Netbooks absolutely blow that away...by 2 or 3 orders of magnitude in the case of RAM and MIPS.
Shame on us for creating a market for such bloated software. The netbook has enough power to do anything we want. We just need to create a business mandate for people to write code that expoits that power rather than wasting it so grotesquely.